Monday, March 2, 2015

Listen To What Our Clients Our Saying



Kelly Carlin:"About 12 years ago you were helping me try to refinance my condo in my name alone while I was going through a divorce with my ex-husband. On the day that the value was coming out to for the assessment of my condo the company I was working for laid off all the staff and I was out of a job. It was all unexpected and devastating for me. As a result I was not able to proceed with the refinance and was forced to sell my condo.  When I called you to see if I could settle the $600 bill for the assessment out of the goodness in your heart you told me not to worry about the bill and hoped I would recommend you to other potential buyers in the future.  This was a wonderful act of kindness that stays with me today. I don't know if you remember any of it but I do and sometimes even share the story with others. Have a wonderful holiday season."


The Nguyen Family:
"It is us who should have thanked you for your support, kindness, and professionalism that have helped us realizing our dream in purchasing the homes we dreamed of.

We count our association with you throughout the years as a special blessing that we have been given."


Mark Hutcheson
Partner/Chairman - Davis Wright Tremaine LLP:
"Ron Black, Julie Bailey and the rest of the team at Cherry Creek are absolutely wonderful to work with.  They are efficient and effective and get things done in a very timely manner.  If you are looking for guides to lead you through the paperwork maze of mortgage financing or refinancing, you will not find anyone better than Ron and Julie.  They will not let you down".


Lew and Barbara White:
"Ron Black and his team did our last mtg at Sterling Bank.  We followed them to Cherry Creek because of their past service level.  They did a great job, again".


Kim Simmons:
"Ron Black & Julie Bailey were great to work with as usual"

Danielle Anderson:
"I cannot say enough wonderful things about the Ron & Julie team.  I only wish every experience in life could be as easy as it was buying a HOUSE with you guys!  Thank you to the moon and back!"

Rates Respond to Yellen Comments

Comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday were favorable for mortgage rates. A wide range of economic data released this week was roughly neutral. The net result was a small decrease in mortgage rates, the first weekly decline in February.

Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress caused investors to push farther in the future when they expect the Fed to begin raising the fed funds rate. Now the consensus outlook is for the first rate hike to take place in September. Yellen explained that the Fed can remain "patient" in tightening monetary policy because inflation remains below the Fed's target level of 2.0%. Also, the labor market contains enough slack to allow room for further improvement without causing inflationary pressures. 


The housing data for January released this week contained mixed news. Unusually bad winter weather played a role and likely will have an impact on next month's reports as well. Of note, both New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales are at or near multi-year highs, while Existing Home Sales fell 5% from December, to the slowest pace since April of last year. 

Although all three reports cover activity in January, Existing Home Sales counts closings, while Pending and New Home Sales measure signed contracts (on existing and new homes). As a result, the latter two reports reflect more current activity, providing a reason to be optimistic about future closings.



Next week, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, ISM Manufacturing and Core PCE will be released on Monday. The Core PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. The ADP Employment Change and ISM Services will come out on Wednesday.





Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Another Very Happy Client We Have Worked WIth

About 12 years ago you were helping me try to refinance my condo in my name alone while I was going through a divorce with my ex-husband. On the day that the valuer was coming out to for the assessment of my condo the company I was working for laid off all the staff and I was out of a job. It was all unexpected and devastating for me. As a result I was not able to proceed with the refinance and was forced to sell my condo.  When I called you to see if I could settle the $600 bill for the assessment out of the goodness in your heart you told me not to worry about the bill and hoped I would recommend you to other potential buyers in the future.  This was a wonderful act of kindness that stays with me today. I don't know if you remember any of it but I do and sometimes even share the story with others. Have a wonderful holiday season.


Kelly Carlin

Monday, January 12, 2015

Capital Markets


By Louis S. Barnes                                                    Monday, January 12, 2015
     Okay, make sense of this: the US economy in a strengthening recovery, the Fed is in hold-me-back mode, jobs-jobs-jobs everywhere... and long-term interest rates have dropped as they would in a depression.
     Right.
     Begin by stripping away three sources of confusion. First the confetti cloud from Wall Street “analysts.” Assume that any commentary from a Street house, or an investment fund is a sales pitch. Maybe useful, maybe not, but frequently designed to induce fear which can only be quenched by handing your money to the firm. These pitches include attractive but indefensible criticism of the Fed, or advocate alternate universes (the gold brigade, Jim Grant marching naked in front), or government-haters.
     Second, hold at a distance all commentary relying on a traditional business cycle, like all the ones after WW II. A lot of good people are caught in this one -- shoot, our only guide is history and recognition of prior patterns. But, in the last 20 years we’ve been moving farther away from prior pattern, less and less retracing. The cyclical allure is powerful: if more and more people are going to work, sooner or later wages will grow, and then too fast, and then we’ll have an inflation problem -- unless the Fed pre-empts by raising the cost of money.
     Third, certainly including this author, nobody knows with any precision what happens next, not in a situation without modern precedent. However, some wisdom is available from studying the specific departures today from prior cycles.
     1. Housing is MIA, flat. Traditional measures of affordability are off-chart high-side. Mortgages never got above 4.50% and are now under 4.00% again. Foreclosures new and old are way down. Absolutely inescapable: something(s) is missing from purchasing power. Credit is too tight, but more important....
     2. The shocker in today’s job data was not another 252,000 jobs in December, or unemployment down to 5.6%, but the drop in hourly wages which canceled the gain in November, the net year-over-year a pathetic 1.7% gain, minimized by....
     3. The cost of health insurance including deductibles is killing the average household. It is not the fault of ObamaCare except by omission (cost reduction was/is every bit as important as more coverage), but the annual premium for a family (employer/family combined) reached $16,000 in 2013, and new subsidies fall off for family incomes above $75,000 per year.
     There is a lot of good stuff going on in the US, but those three are the cement Frankensteins in the parking lot. Then there is the drag from overseas. The Fed’s most recent meeting minutes contain more musing about foreign weakness than any I’ve ever read.
     4. The German 10-year is now 0.49%, and Japan’s 0.28%. Many claim that European yields are pushed down by anticipation of ECB QE, but rates here moved up at the onset of each round of Fed QE, hopeful that QE would work. Alternate explanations for Europe and Japan: too late for QE, debt is growing faster than economies, default in the air. Europe has a good chance to recover if it repairs euro-errors, Japan maybe not. US bond yields are pulled down by these two, yet....
     5. Europe is not in deflation. falling oil has pulled its overall CPI to negative .2%, but its core is still positive .6%. Japan is closer to zero, but the real problem in both places is American Disease: incomes compressed by global wage competition.
     Wild cards are scattered all over the place. The collapse of oil should help, but there may be too many zero-sum effects. Everyone in that market assumes that prices will rebound to the $70/bbl level. China is slowing, trying to re-balance its economy, but even they can’t know the pace or effects inside or out.
     Nobody believes the Fed. Short-term Treasurys have priced-in one .25% hike this year, a Wright brothers liftoff. If considering a refi in this murk, take any deal that recaptures costs in 18 months or less, and don’t wait for lower.
-------------------------------------------------